27.6.09

Look The Property Market Cycle


Properties on the market at this time are on the fragile condition and there is a demand decline sharply due to the economic crisis in the field.
What is the cycle? The simple cycle can be said as a result of the natural instability of the market and the player’s inability to maintain stable market supply and demand. In the long period of time this does not cause problems, but in a time where the market control and loose in a short time going over-heating so that the fall of the market can not be dodged, we need to think more deeply about these cycles.

Although we realize that not a single cycle, which represents a certain property activities, but the cycle is influenced by other economic-cycle according to the position of each. We need to identify the behaviour of some important economic element in the field of property (real estate) to be able to identify market trends, which are: Inflation cycle ; Macro-cycle long-term real estate ; Macro cycle real estate short-term; Cycle of funding from banks / financial institutions; Cycle of regional development; Cycle age and ownership rights invest; Cycle popularity and taste; Cycle demand ; Supply cycle ; Cycle rental properties .

Be seen from the national, cycle property also has a more important meaning. Such as Indonesia, are very dependent on foreign funds to finance projects in large-scale properties. At the time of going "property boom", the number of loans outside the country to grow rapidly. When then decrease sharply in the market situation, the foreign borrowing can lead to a drop in the value of the currency of dollar or rupiah.

In such conditions it is very possible despite the failure of the project owner is able to overcome the problems of decline in local demand. The situation therefore is not only due to a severe rise in the property market and funding from the bank but can be spread overlooks joint-joint national economy.

Basically, the cycle has a characteristic pattern that is a simple standard:
Cycle begins on the supply and demand balance. Demand increased in line with economic growth, this growth provides opportunities for development. Marked the beginning of the competition with the low level of price increase so quickly lead to higher investment returns above the average. Attracted by the large demand and the highest good, and added supply increased again with the emergence of new suppliers, this is causing increased competition and demand equilibrate quickly. As a result of the length management license, a bank loan agreement and the development of many developers who were late to enter the market so that more can not be absorbed by demand. Demand a high cause developers to ignore the quality of the building pursuing a greater advantage, so that developers do not have any experience of follow-follow-up to the market without thinking about the long-term program. Such conditions lead to the emergence of price wars, the quality of development and decrease the profit developers. This will cause complaints from buyers and eventually eliminate the public trust. See good growth, the Bank and financial institutions compete to provide race-loans to developers so that the loss of principles circumspection, the loan becomes more important than the quality of the loan. Difficulty selling the interest burden of the greater, so the developers were forced to lower the selling price so that the loss of benefits, some developers do not even longer to return the loan.